AI Is Coming for 80% of Founders (Which Side Are You On?)

AI is coming for 80% of founders. Not because AI is malicious, but because 80% of founders aren't building anything original.

They're building things, they're making things better, but they're not making innovative things. They're not making original things. They're making things that are generic.

And generic is exactly what AI excels at.

The Great Founder Sorting

AI is creating a brutal separation:

80% of founders: Will be replaced by AI or commoditized into irrelevance 20% of founders: Will use AI as leverage to build things that didn't exist before

Which group are you in?

The test is simple: If Claude could build your product with the right prompt, you're in the 80%.

The Claude Basketball Game Test

Here's how the 80% build products:

Ask Claude: "Build me a basketball game" → Claude builds a basketball game → You ship it as "AI Sports Arena" or "HoopMaster Pro"

Now imagine 10,000 people ask Claude the same thing.

Result: 10,000 basketball games with slight UI variations but identical core logic. All competing with each other. All fundamentally the same product.

This is what most "AI-native" building looks like:

• Prompt → Output → Ship
• No original thinking between input and output
• AI is doing the work, you're just the prompt operator
• The "founder" is really just a well-trained user

The brutal reality: If your business model is "I can prompt AI better than others," you don't have a business model. You have a temporary skill advantage that's disappearing daily.

What the 80% Actually Do

The 80% aren't building. They're optimizing prompts.

Common 80% founder patterns:

The Feature Replicator:

• Sees successful app feature
• Prompts AI to build similar feature with minor variations
• Ships as "innovative new product"
• Competes on minor UI differences

The Template Multiplier:

• Takes proven business model
• Uses AI to create multiple variations
• "Uber for X" becomes "AI-powered Uber for X"
• No fundamental innovation, just AI-enhanced copying

The Prompt Optimizer:

• Spends time perfecting prompts for better AI output
• Focuses on execution speed over product uniqueness
• Measures success by how fast they can ship
• Confuses AI proficiency with entrepreneurial skill

The Platform Wrapper:

• Builds thin UI layer on top of existing AI capabilities
• "We're like ChatGPT but for [specific use case]"
• No proprietary value beyond interface design
• Defensibility depends entirely on incumbent platform choices

These aren't bad people. They're just building the wrong things in the wrong way.

What AI Can't Replace (The 20%)

AI can generate anything that fits existing patterns. It can't create new patterns.

What separates the 20%:

Original Thesis About What Should Exist

• Vision for products that don't exist yet
• Understanding of problems that don't have obvious solutions
• Willingness to build something the market doesn't know it wants
• Conviction about future that contradicts current evidence

Taste for What Actually Matters

• Judgment about which features matter vs which are noise
• Understanding of user psychology and behavioral change
• Ability to say no to obvious features that would dilute focus
• Sense for what feels right vs what tests well

Contrarian Views That Go Against Training Data

• Perspectives that contradict conventional wisdom
• Insights that can't be found in existing content
• Willingness to bet against popular opinion
• Ideas that most people think are wrong or impossible

Accountability for Outcomes

• Ownership of business decisions and their consequences
• Willingness to be wrong publicly and learn from failures
• Responsibility for customer success and satisfaction
• Personal investment in long-term value creation

The key difference: The 20% use AI as leverage for their original ideas. The 80% use AI as a substitute for having ideas.

Real Examples of the Split

80% Founder Example: AI Writing Assistant #47

The approach:

• Sees success of Grammarly, Jasper, Copy.ai
• Prompts Claude: "Build me a writing assistant that's better than Grammarly"
• Adds minor features: "But make it focus on email writing"
• Ships as "EmailGenius AI"

Why this is 80%:

• No original insight about writing or productivity
• Competing on execution of existing idea
• Defensibility depends on prompt engineering quality
• Will be commoditized as AI writing improves

20% Founder Example: Contrarian Market Position

The approach:

• Original thesis: "AI writing assistants make writing worse by optimizing for engagement over truth"
• Builds tool that helps writers be more honest, not more persuasive
• Uses AI to detect and flag manipulative language patterns
• Creates market for "authentic communication tools"

Why this is 20%:

• Original insight that goes against market consensus
• AI amplifies contrarian view rather than replacing it
• Creates new category instead of competing in existing one
• Defendable through unique perspective and taste

The Skill Premium Collapse

Where AI fear is underdone: Most people aren't scared enough about skill commoditization.

The pattern happening across all industries:

Before AI: Skill scarcity creates premium pricing After AI: Skill abundance eliminates premium

Examples:

1. Writing: Used to require years of skill development → Now anyone can produce professional-quality content with AI
2. Coding: Used to require computer science education → Now anyone can build sophisticated applications
3. Design: Used to require artistic training → Now anyone can create professional graphics and layouts
4. Analysis: Used to require specialized knowledge → Now anyone can process complex data and generate insights
5. The brutal truth: If your competitive advantage is based on a skill that AI can replicate, your advantage is temporary.**

This applies to founders too:

• 80% founders: Competitive advantage based on execution skills (coding, design, marketing)
• 20% founders: Competitive advantage based on unique perspective and judgment

AI eliminates the first advantage. It amplifies the second.

The Singularity Point Problem

Most founders are building single-skill identities in a multi-skill world.

The old model:

• "I'm a technical founder" (single skill identity)
• Success depends on coding ability and technical execution
• Career advancement through deepening technical expertise
• Value creation through superior implementation

The new reality:

• AI handles technical execution better than most humans
• Technical skill becomes commodity input, not competitive advantage
• Success depends on combining multiple skills with unique judgment
• Value creation through original thinking and strategic decision-making

The singularity point: The moment when your primary skill becomes commoditized by AI.

For most founders, this already happened. They just don't realize it yet.

What Comes After: The Rebirth of Routes

The future belongs to multi-plural founders who combine AI leverage with original thinking.

New founder archetypes emerging:

The AI-Amplified Contrarian:

• Uses AI to test and validate contrarian hypotheses
• Builds products that go against conventional wisdom
• Leverages AI execution to focus on strategic thinking
• Creates new markets rather than optimizing existing ones

The Human-AI Hybrid:

• Combines uniquely human judgment with AI capability
• Uses AI for execution, humans for direction and accountability
• Builds products that require both AI efficiency and human empathy
• Creates value through integration rather than replacement

The Platform Pioneer:

• Identifies new possibilities created by AI capabilities
• Builds products that weren't possible before AI existed
• Uses AI as foundational technology, not just tool
• Creates entirely new categories and markets

The Experience Curator:

• Focuses on human experience and emotional resonance
• Uses AI to handle complexity while optimizing for human needs
• Builds products that feel magical rather than just functional
• Competes on taste and judgment rather than features

The Self-Assessment Framework

Which side are you on? Answer these questions honestly:

Question 1: Origin of Ideas

• Do your product ideas come from observing existing successful products?
• Or do they come from original insights about unsolved problems?

Question 2: AI Dependency

• If AI tools disappeared tomorrow, could you still build your product?
• Or would your entire business model collapse without AI capabilities?

Question 3: Competitive Differentiation

• Is your advantage based on better execution of known strategies?
• Or based on unique perspective about what should be built?

Question 4: Customer Value

• Do customers choose you because you do existing things better?
• Or because you do things that didn't exist before?

Question 5: Decision Making

• Do you rely on AI to tell you what to build?
• Or do you use AI to build what you've decided matters?

Scoring:

• 5 "first" answers: You're in the 20%. AI will amplify your success.
• 3-4 "first" answers: You're at risk. Start developing original thinking.
• 0-2 "first" answers: You're in the 80%. AI is coming for your business model.

Strategies for Joining the 20%

If you're currently in the 80%, here's how to transition:

Strategy 1: Develop Contrarian Theses

• Study your industry and identify widely held beliefs
• Question assumptions that everyone takes for granted
• Develop hypotheses that contradict popular opinion
• Test contrarian ideas with real customers and data

Strategy 2: Focus on Problems, Not Solutions

• Stop looking at existing products for inspiration
• Start with genuine problems that affect you personally
• Understand problem space deeply before building anything
• Use AI to test problem hypotheses, not to generate solutions

Strategy 3: Build Unique Taste and Judgment

• Develop strong opinions about what good looks like in your domain
• Practice saying no to obvious features and opportunities
• Cultivate aesthetic and functional sensibilities
• Use AI as tool for expressing taste, not for developing it

Strategy 4: Create Original Value Propositions

• Identify value that doesn't currently exist in market
• Build products that create new categories rather than compete in existing ones
• Focus on customer outcomes rather than feature comparisons
• Use AI to deliver unique value faster, not to copy existing value

Strategy 5: Develop Multiple Skill Routes

• Don't rely on single skill for competitive advantage
• Combine technical, business, creative, and strategic capabilities
• Use AI to augment weaknesses while focusing on unique strengths
• Build identity around problem-solving ability, not specific skills

What This Means for Different Types of Founders

1. For technical founders: Your coding skills are becoming commoditized. Focus on system design thinking, technical judgment, and understanding what customers actually need. Use AI to code faster so you can spend more time on product strategy.
2. For business founders: Your ability to copy successful business models is worthless. Focus on identifying new market opportunities, building unique customer relationships, and developing contrarian market insights. Use AI to execute faster so you can focus on original thinking.
3. For creative founders: Your execution skills (design, writing, content creation) are being automated. Focus on aesthetic judgment, cultural insight, and emotional resonance. Use AI to produce more so you can focus on curation and direction.
4. For first-time founders: Don't start by trying to build better versions of existing products. Start with original problems you understand deeply. Use AI as leverage for your unique insights, not as replacement for having insights.
5. For experienced founders: Your past success might be based on skills that AI now commoditizes. Develop new sources of competitive advantage based on judgment, taste, and original thinking. Use AI to free up time for strategic work.

The Uncomfortable Questions

For founders in the 80%:

If AI can build your product with the right prompt, what value do you actually create?

Are you building something new, or just optimizing something that already exists?

Would customers choose your product if a dozen AI-generated competitors launched tomorrow?

Is your competitive advantage based on skills that AI is rapidly commoditizing?

For founders in the 20%:

Are you using AI to amplify your original thinking, or as a crutch for lack of original thinking?

Do you have strong enough taste and judgment to direct AI effectively?

Are you building something that creates new value, or just delivering existing value more efficiently?

Would your business still work if AI capabilities became universally available?

For everyone:

Are you prepared for a world where execution is commoditized and only original thinking matters?

Do you have multiple skill routes or are you dependent on single skill identity?

Are you building businesses that will matter in 10 years, or just taking advantage of current AI limitations?

The Timeline

When the 80% get eliminated:

• 2024-2025: AI tools become sophisticated enough to replace basic product development
• 2025-2026: Market becomes saturated with AI-generated products competing on minor differences
• 2026-2027: Customers stop paying premium for AI-enhanced versions of existing products
• 2027-2028: Only products with genuine innovation and original thinking survive market consolidation

The window for transitioning from 80% to 20% is closing.

Every month you spend building generic products is a month you could spend developing original thinking.

Every AI-generated feature you ship without unique insight makes you more replaceable.

Every time you use AI as substitute for having ideas, you atrophy the muscle that actually matters.

Why This Matters

Because most founders are optimizing for the wrong thing.

They're trying to get better at using AI tools when they should be developing thinking that AI can't replicate.

They're competing on execution speed when they should be competing on insight quality.

They're building faster versions of existing things when they should be building things that don't exist yet.

AI is not the enemy. Lack of original thinking is the enemy.

AI doesn't replace good founders. It replaces founders who weren't adding unique value in the first place.

The question isn't whether AI will replace you. The question is whether you're building something worth replacing.

Are you in the 80% or the 20%?

Your answer determines whether AI makes you irrelevant or unstoppable.

Choose wisely. The sorting has already begun.